Nepal seeks $4-5bn for Bhotekoshi-Trishuli rebuild as cheap loans narrow

Five days after the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli disaster, two Nepali ministers wrote to a global climate fund and asked for help. The fund held an emergency meeting and decided to give Nepal a $20m grant, which would be the first it has provided since it was established. It is a small cheque set against a very large bill, and it frames the problem facing Kathmandu: how to pay for a rebuild when cheap sources of money are becoming scarcer.

Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle told a parliamentary special committee at Singha Durbar on 6 November 2026 that the government has begun the process of raising $4-5bn for reconstruction and rehabilitation. The work is planned over three to five years. At the central bank's rate of Rs 152.23 to the dollar, the upper figure is roughly Rs 761bn.

Four lenders, one plan

The government expects about 80% of the money to come from four sources: India, China, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It plans to raise the remaining 20% from other development partners and donor agencies.

$4-5bnEstimated reconstruction need

80%Share the government expects from India, China, World Bank and ADB

Up to $1bnWorld Bank commitments Wagle says he has assurance of

$20mLoss and Damage Fund grant, about to be received

Source: Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle, as reported by Online Khabar

Each partner is being asked for something different. Talks with India cover a special financial package for reconstruction and development projects, and some agreements are expected during the Prime Minister's coming visit to India. Talks with China cover reconstruction, modern infrastructure and alternative trade points, including rail, tunnels, viaducts and modern customs facilities linking the Rasuwa, Tatopani and Korala border crossings.

Nepal also wants to upgrade its old roads to China with modern technology rather than settle for routine maintenance. Reconstruction is thus being treated as a chance to build trade infrastructure, not only to restore what was lost. For a reader outside Nepal, the point is that a landlocked economy between two large neighbours is bargaining with both.

With the World Bank and ADB, Wagle has assurance that commitments of up to about $1bn can be obtained, as needed, through various World Bank bodies and concessional mechanisms, and he expects similar support from the ADB. A Nepali finance minister has also met the World Bank president directly for the first time in 39 years.

The narrowing of cheap money

At a press conference on 5 November 2026 about the Nepal Infrastructure Summit 2026, Wagle spoke of the limits. Nepal has long relied on highly concessional loans from the World Bank and ADB, with repayment periods of 35 to 40 years and interest of around 1% to 1.5% in dollars. Access to them is expected to become increasingly limited, and the financing has itself become a subject of controversy.

Grant aid is also falling worldwide, so even concessional loans must be used prudently. Nepal once leaned on grants for development, and that support is now shrinking.

The arithmetic explains the pressure. If the four main sources supply 80% of a $4-5bn programme, they must provide roughly $3.2-4bn. A World Bank assurance of up to about $1bn is a meaningful share of that, but it does not close the gap alone. Whether India and China fill the rest on terms Nepal can afford is the central open question, and the terms, more than the headline totals, will determine how heavy the burden falls on future budgets.

Budget, insurance and private capital

In the current fiscal year, reconstruction will be funded by reallocating money within the existing budget. The next fiscal year's budget could add resources and increase its overall size. Wagle cited the 2015 earthquake, when the budget in the year of the quake was Rs 518bn and was raised to Rs 619bn the following year.

Source: Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle, as reported by Online Khabar

The increase was Rs 101bn, or about 19.5%. Similar arrangements, he said, can be made this time if needed. For businesses, a larger budget tied to reconstruction would mean more public contracts in roads, bridges, power and communications, though the sources give no figure for next year's budget.

Nepal is also trying to reduce its dependence on appeals after the fact. It has become the first South Asian country to join a catastrophe insurance system, in which a small premium can bring a large payout after a major earthquake or similar event. The government will also approach the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund.

For infrastructure more broadly, the minister stressed the need to bring in the private sector and said the investment summit would showcase reforms already carried out. The government is working on 59 laws, compared with 65 enacted over the previous three and a half years.

Delivery risk

Bailey bridges, electricity and telephone services were restored within a short time, Wagle acknowledged, but services have not reached all affected areas equally. Local governments will be the first accountable bodies, coordinating with provincial governments, line ministries and security agencies. The committee was asked to draft procedures and policy recommendations for future disasters.

That is the second test after financing: whether municipalities can spend very large sums quickly and fairly. Pledges are easy to announce; disbursement is slower.

What to watch

• Outcomes of the Prime Minister's visit to India, and whether a special financial package is agreed.
• The terms of any World Bank and ADB commitments, and whether they match the concessional rates Wagle described.
• Progress on China talks over the Rasuwa, Tatopani and Korala crossings.
• The size of reconstruction allocations in the next fiscal year's budget.
• Whether the private sector is offered a real role at the Nepal Infrastructure Summit 2026.